Trends and projections of heart failure among adolescents and young adults: an in-depth analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Songren Shu1,2, Zhiwei Zeng1, Yicheng Yang1,3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
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Summary
Heart failure (HF) prevalence in young adults (15-49 years) surged 76% globally from 1990-2021, with significant regional disparities. Targeted interventions are crucial to address this growing burden in younger populations.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology and Public Health Epidemiology
- Global Health Trends in Cardiovascular Disease
Background:
- Rising heart failure (HF) prevalence impacts younger demographics, yet comprehensive epidemiological data for adolescents and young adults are limited.
- Understanding HF trends in the 15-49 age group is critical due to increasing incidence and potential long-term health consequences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze population shifts and the burden of heart failure (HF) in individuals aged 15-49 years between 1990 and 2021.
- To project future HF prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) through 2035.
- To investigate regional disparities and contributing factors to HF in young populations.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 for the 15-49 age group.
- Employed age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to analyze temporal trends and project future HF burdens.
- Assessed HF causes, correlated Socio-demographic Index (SDI) with HF prevalence and YLDs using Pearson correlation.
Main Results:
- Global HF prevalence in individuals aged 15-49 increased by 76.76% from 1990-2021, with the highest growth in African, Eastern Mediterranean, and South-East Asian regions.
- By 2021, global HF prevalence reached 7,048.1 thousand cases, with males exhibiting higher burdens than females across all WHO regions.
- Ischemic heart disease was the primary cause of HF and YLDs; projections indicate a rise to 8,115.4 thousand cases by 2035.
Conclusions:
- Young adults (15-49 years) worldwide face escalating heart failure burdens, characterized by significant spatial and sexual disparities.
- Developing targeted strategies to mitigate HF burden is essential, considering varying socioeconomic development levels across countries.
- Urgent public health initiatives are needed to address the growing prevalence of heart failure in younger populations.