Modeling potential cost-effectiveness of tirzepatide versus lifestyle modification for patients with overweight and obesity

Area of Science:

• Pharmacoeconomics
• Obesity Management
• Clinical Trial Modeling

Background:

• Obesity and overweight are significant public health concerns associated with numerous comorbidities.
• Lifestyle modification (LSM) is a cornerstone of obesity management, but often has limited long-term efficacy.
• Pharmacological interventions are increasingly being explored for sustainable weight management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the cost-effectiveness of tirzepatide versus LSM for managing overweight and obesity.
• To evaluate tirzepatide's impact on obesity-related complications and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

Main Methods:

• An individual-level discrete event simulation model was developed using Microsoft Excel.
• Short-term outcomes from the SURMOUNT-1 trial were linked to long-term obesity complications.
• The model simulated 1000 adult patients over a lifetime horizon, considering direct medical costs and a 3% discount rate.

Main Results:

• Tirzepatide (5, 10, 15 mg) yielded 0.54-0.61 additional QALYs compared to LSM.
• Incremental costs ranged from $70,453 to $79,288, with ICERs between $125,053 and $146,331 per QALY gained.
• All tirzepatide doses were projected to be cost-effective at a $150,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold.

Conclusions:

• Tirzepatide is predicted to be a cost-effective alternative to LSM for obesity and overweight management.
• The drug offers significant health benefits, including increased QALYs.
• These findings support tirzepatide's value in a comprehensive obesity treatment strategy.