Web-based real-time risk assessment of coronavirus disease 2019 infection in schools and social dining settings

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• Schools and dining are high-risk settings for indoor COVID-19 transmission.
• Real-time risk assessment can help manage indoor activity duration and size based on the epidemic situation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the per-hour transmission rates of COVID-19 in school and social dining settings.
• To develop a web application for calculating real-time COVID-19 infection risk in these settings.

Main Methods:

• Utilized COVID-19 surveillance data from Japan (Jan-Feb 2022).
• Employed a mathematical model to estimate per-hour transmission rates.
• Developed a web application incorporating variables like duration, participant numbers, vaccination history, and residence.

Main Results:

• Estimated per-hour transmission rates: 0.01934 in social dining and 0.00324 in schools.
• The web application calculates individual COVID-19 infection risk.
• Users can adjust variables for real-time risk reduction.

Conclusions:

• Social dining has a higher per-hour transmission rate than schools.
• The number of participants can influence overall risk, potentially offsetting rate differences.
• The web application serves as a tool to enhance risk awareness for COVID-19 in high-risk environments.