Suitable Planting Area Prediction for Two Arnebia Species: An Analysis Based on Habitat and Phytochemical Suitability

Area of Science:

• Ecological modeling
• Pharmacognosy
• Conservation biology

Background:

• Medicinal plants like Arnebia euchroma and Arnebia guttata are vital traditional Chinese medicines found in Xinjiang.
• These species face over-exploitation risks due to habitat and phytochemical suitability variations.
• Understanding distribution patterns is crucial for sustainable resource management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict suitable planting areas for Arnebia euchroma and Arnebia guttata by integrating habitat and phytochemical suitability.
• To assess the impact of current and future climate scenarios on suitable habitat distribution.
• To identify key environmental factors influencing species distribution and secondary metabolite content.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS for habitat suitability prediction.
• Validated model accuracy using AUC and TSS values (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.72).
• Analyzed the influence of climate, soil, and land use/land cover on species distribution.

Main Results:

• Predicted high accuracy models for both species.
• Identified current suitable habitats of 108,914 km² for A. euchroma and 176,445 km² for A. guttata in Xinjiang.
• Projected habitat area changes under future climate scenarios, with A. euchroma generally increasing and A. guttata decreasing.
• Found significant correlations between habitat suitability, secondary metabolite content, and environmental factors like soil nitrogen and precipitation.

Conclusions:

• The eastern and western sides of the northern Kunlun Mountain Pass are identified as prime cultivation areas.
• Habitat and phytochemical suitability align, supporting targeted cultivation strategies.
• This research provides a scientific basis for selecting optimal planting regions to ensure the sustainable supply of Arnebia species.