Presidential election results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic in Brazilian municipalities

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Political Science
• Epidemiology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted disparities in public health outcomes.
• Political figures' responses to health crises can influence public health.
• Brazil's political landscape is characterized by strong partisanship.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between political partisanship and excess mortality in Brazil.
• To determine if electoral results correlate with excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Methods:

• Utilized municipal death certificates from the Brazilian Ministry of Health.
• Analyzed first-round presidential election results from 2018 and 2022.
• Correlated Bolsonaro's vote percentage with excess mortality data for 2020-2021.

Main Results:

• A positive association was found between Bolsonaro's vote share and excess mortality peaks in 2020-2021.
• Political loyalty to Bolsonaro remained consistent in 2022 despite high excess mortality.
• Excess mortality during the pandemic was linked to political partisanship.

Conclusions:

• Political partisanship, specifically support for Bolsonaro, is associated with higher excess mortality in Brazilian municipalities.
• Affective polarization and tribal politics may explain continued political loyalty amidst the health crisis.